Council by-elections
There were four council by-elections yesterday. Labour performed
well and there was a repeat of the UKIP surge from the county council
elections, with a gain in Thanet where they had already picked up 7 of 8 county councillors.
Longbridge Ward, LB Barking & Dagenham. Lab hold. Lab
1555 (64.3%, +19), UKIP 466 (19.3%, +19.3), Con 284 (11.7%, -5.1), LD 78 (3.2%,
-13.9), BNP 37 (1.5%, 0-7.8).Swing of 0.2% from Lab to UKIP since 2010.
Abbey Ward, Leicester CC. Lab hold. Lab 1190 (47.9%, -4),
Con 562 (22.6%, +7.6), Ind 352 (14.8%, +14.8), LD 212 (8.6%, +1), TUSC 165
(6.7%, +6.7). Swing of 5.8% from Lab to Con since 2011.
Alexandra Ward, Oldham MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1553 (70.7%,
+24.3), UKIP 412 (18.8%. +18.8), LD 96 (4.4%, -14.4), Con 80 (3.6%, -31.2),
Green 55 (2.5%, +2.5). Swing of 2.8% from UKIP to Lab since 2012.
Cliftonville East Ward, Thanet DC. UKIP gain from Con.
UKIP 699 (40.6%, +40.6), Con 526 (30.6%, -15.3), Lab 352 (20.5%, +0.6), Ind 112
(6.5%, -16.7), LD 32 (1.9%, +1.9). Swing of 28% from Con to UKIP since 2011.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 1:20 pm
3 Comments:
How can Alexandra ward have a swing from UKIP to Labour if UKIP didn't even stand last time?
10:50 pm, May 10, 2013
Because swing is just the change in the first party this time added to the change in the second party this time, divided by two. In this case because Labour's vote went up by more than UKIP's, the swing was from UKIP to Labour.
10:12 pm, May 11, 2013
Which is a pretty good illustration of why "swing" is such a useless psephological concept upon which far too much import is placed.
8:50 am, May 15, 2013
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