A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.
MORI poll today:
posted by Luke Akehurst at 2:31 pm
Labour Party activist since 1988 - firmly on the moderate wing of the party. Member of Labour’s NEC 2010-2012 and since 2020. National Secretary of Labour Students 1995-6. Parliamentary candidate for Aldershot (2001) and Castle Point (2005). Hackney Councillor (Chatham Ward) 2002-2014, Labour Group Chief Whip 2002-09, Chair of Health Scrutiny 2010-2014. Supporter of Europe, NATO/nuclear deterrence, Israel, electoral reform. Guardian reader. Dad. Oxford resident. Unite union member. Employment history as a Labour Party Organiser, Local Government Political Assistant, Director at a Public Affairs company. All views expressed in a personal capacity. The rest will become evident from reading the blog.
12 Comments:
This is a poll of 'people certain to vote', I note
I'm not very good at these things - does that make a difference?
3:04 pm, November 18, 2008
It reduces the Labour share.
A poll of the entire electorate, including those who for whatever reason are unlikely to vote, would have Labour way ahead of the Tories, because for socio-economic reasons many Labour supporters are unlikely to vote.
The First Past the Post system compensates for this (by accident) as safe Labour inner city seats still get an MP each even if their turnout is very low.
3:15 pm, November 18, 2008
This narrowing of the poll lead is encouraging; and this is before Cameron's spending blunder this morning which will allow every Labour campaigner to warn the electors about Tory cuts to their local services.
3:53 pm, November 18, 2008
Luke - you are right that FPTP currently accidently 'compensates' for low Labour voter turnout in poorer inner city seats - but FPTP is always open to gerrymandering abuse and a little tinkering by the Tories (they propose enlarging seats to make them more rural) will change this.
4:22 pm, November 18, 2008
Don't worry Neil I haven't suddenly converted to supporting FPTP after 20 years as an electoral reformer.
4:45 pm, November 18, 2008
Just to note that assuming the NI results were the same as last time Labour would have an effective majority of eight - Sinn Fein don't turn up, the SDLP take the Labour whip (though in reality I wouldn't rely on them much more than for "confidence and supply") and Sylvia Hermon votes Labour.
10:03 pm, November 18, 2008
The only poll that counts is called a general election, then people really do vote well except the 60+% who stay at home bored sick.
7:40 am, November 19, 2008
To all those hideous people who think it is really is good for democracy to make threatening phone calls to my 8 year old son this evening.
I really wish these people would knock on my door next time and try and hurl abuse and my family. Cowards.
BNP member and will remain to do so.
8:48 pm, November 19, 2008
Does that mean yoy are in the BNP Rich?
8:55 pm, November 19, 2008
Rich
Are you really a BNP Member?
A shame, because I thought you were more intelligent than that if you are?
12:06 am, November 20, 2008
BNP National front members exposed!
This has actually happened to many left wing organisations in the 1980's & early mid 90's-Right wing thugs would break into the offices and steal data and expose membership lists, then the MI5 would infiltrate these left wing parties and campaign organisations. The data was then sold to the economic league who then set up a service where capitalists could find left wing activists and blacklist them from employment or promotion and even victimise them.
I don't feel sorry for these BNP National Front people as they were doing all the things in the above paragraph. Now they have a taste of their own medicine.
12:21 pm, November 20, 2008
I'm not a thug and not a member of the National Front. The BNP a political party and although it might have members who share right wing views most people are just everyday, honest, polite and fair....and not racist.
8:56 pm, November 20, 2008
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