A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.
Deep mid-term polls like this one today from ICM:
posted by Luke Akehurst at 9:22 am
Labour Party activist since 1988 - firmly on the moderate wing of the party. Member of Labour’s NEC 2010-2012 and since 2020. National Secretary of Labour Students 1995-6. Parliamentary candidate for Aldershot (2001) and Castle Point (2005). Hackney Councillor (Chatham Ward) 2002-2014, Labour Group Chief Whip 2002-09, Chair of Health Scrutiny 2010-2014. Supporter of Europe, NATO/nuclear deterrence, Israel, electoral reform. Guardian reader. Dad. Oxford resident. Unite union member. Employment history as a Labour Party Organiser, Local Government Political Assistant, Director at a Public Affairs company. All views expressed in a personal capacity. The rest will become evident from reading the blog.
12 Comments:
Still in hung Parliament territory, Clegg will be wetting himself. Labour as largest party will make it harder for the LD's to justify a lash-up with the Tories (although, as in Camden, they could pull the "case for change" style argument). Expect whoring.
9:41 am, February 20, 2008
I think the LD's will demand electoral reform as a central part of any deal.
There doesn't actually have to be a deal
11:26 am, February 20, 2008
... but as far as Posho Dave is concerned, the Tories are simply not streaking ahead in the opinion polls in the way that they should be if they wish to form a majority government
11:27 am, February 20, 2008
Nick Clegg has already said that a coalition with the conservatives is possible. He also stated that he can't see a coalition working with Labour.
12:31 pm, February 20, 2008
I'm waiting on the next full poll as these interim figures are not giving a very clear picture. They still show that well over 60% of people don't like brown...while people seem to trust Cameron.
Gordon and his party have performed terribly over the last few months and I can't see how Labour could of possibly inreased their poll.
Personally I think by the time the next election comes this country will be in such a mess that Labour will be lucky to come out with a handful of seats. There's a recession coming and it's going to be a big one...no government can win in these conditions.
2:37 pm, February 20, 2008
The Tories won during recessions in both 1983 and 1992 - recessions they caused.
2:44 pm, February 20, 2008
The difference is Luke the last conservative government was in a better position to deal with an economic downturn. Labour don't haven't any room in the public purse to make the coming recession easier to swallow.
3:21 pm, February 20, 2008
If they were in a better economic position, they certainly didn't take advantage of it. Are you saying you think reposessions over the next couple of years are going to be higher than in the last recession? Crazy.
4:31 pm, February 20, 2008
Reposessions will rise by at least 60% and may exceed the 1990s; have you any idea what is coming over the next 18 months.
Despite two interest rate cuts the banks are not reducing the cost of lending...it's more likely to increase. Remember how much people have borrowed in respect to how much they earn and how much the std variable rate is. Some homeowners will be faced with 9% APR with fees as much as £3000.00...there are millions of home owners in this position.
But it is not reposessions that will hurt the UK. The cost of lending is soaring for business and this causes all sorts of problems.
UK is far too dependent on services and this means that while the pound is weak we may not see exports make up for losses in domestic spending.
Brown made a real mess when he split financial regulation between the FSA and the BofE.
I will be shocked if Brown wins another term on after this.
5:10 pm, February 20, 2008
No, Rich. Listen to what Clegg actually said which was:
1. That if labour significantly fell in popularity it would be difficult to justify maintaining them in power, and
2. That a deal with the tories would have to include agreement to swathes of LD policy including electoral reform.
1:06 am, February 21, 2008
Don't you think we need reform? I would welcome it.
The BNP would get a few seats, so would the greens and UKIP, Lib Dem/ Labour / conservative would have to come to an arrangement.
At last a voting system that represents the people rather than the party.
11:23 am, February 21, 2008
Yes, I do believe in electoral reform. But the Tories do not.
11:40 pm, February 25, 2008
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