A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Council by-election results

There were 12 council by-elections yesterday. With the exception of a loss to the Tories in Melton, it was a good night for Labour, holding a split ward seat in Hillingdon, holding a seat in Midlothian with a good swing from the SNP to Labour, in complete contradiction of the Scottish opinion polls, and holding three Oxford council estate seats with over 70% of the vote and the Greens losing vote share and getting derisory scores in a parliamentary seat they have announced is one of their dozen national targets. Congratulations to my wife Linda on her election as Blackbird Leys Ward councillor with 75.7% of the vote and a 7.7% swing from UKIP to Labour since May.

Troup Ward, Aberdeenshire UA. SNP gain from Con. First preference votes: SNP 1159 (46.1%, +6.4), Con 574 (22.8%, +1.9), Ind 391 (15.5%, +15.5), LD 141 (5.6%, +3.6), Lab 140 (5.6%, -0.9), Green 68 (2.7%, +2.7), Ind 43 (1.7%, +1.7). Swing of 2.2% from Con to SNP since 2012.

Bridlington Central & Old Town Ward, East Yorkshire UA. UKIP gain from SDP. UKIP 401 (30.8%, +30.8), Con 352 (27.1%, -2), Ind 217 (16.7%, +16.7), Ind 214 (16.5%, +16.5), Ind 116 (8.9%, +8.9). Swing of 16.4% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Howdenshire Ward, East Yorkshire UA. Con hold. Con 1020 (46.2%, +2.6), UKIP 891 (40.3%, +5.4), Lab 298 (13.5%, -2.1). Swing of 1.4% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Ellerby & Kirk Ella Ward, East Yorkshire UA. Con hold. Con 1522 (55.6%, +9.4), UKIP 699 (25.5%, +25.5), Lab 515 (18.8%, +2.7). Swing of 8.1% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Charville Ward, LB Hillingdon. Lab hold. Lab 950 (39.2%, +4.2), Con 929 (38.3%, +7), UKIP 468 (19.3%, -3), TUSC 40 (1.7%, -1.3), LD 37 (1.5%, +1.5). Swing of 1.4% from Lab to Con since May this year. This was a split ward electing a mix of Lab and Con councillors in May.

St Neots Priory Park Ward, Huntingdonshire DC. Con hold. Con 448 (45.5%, -2.9), UKIP 337 (25.5%, +7.4), Lab 199 (20.2%, +5.4). Swing of 5.2% from Con to UKIP since May this year.

Asfordby Ward, Melton DC. Con gain from Lab. Con 265 (54.3%, +16.2), Lab 129 26.4%, -7.7), UKIP 94 (19.3%, +19.3). Swing of 12% from Lab to Con since 2011. This was a split ward electing both Lab and Con councillors in 2011.

Midlothian East Ward, Mildlothian UA. Lab hold. First preference votes: Lab 1294 (32.9%, -2.7), SNP 1260 (32.1%, -10.8), Ind 780 (19.8%, +19.8), Con 331 (8.4%, -0.7), Green 197 (5%, +5), LD 68 (1.7%, +1.7). Swing of 4.1% from SNP to Lab since 2012.

Kirkwall West & Orphir Ward, Orkney UA. Ind hold. All candidates Independent in this election and in 2012.

Blackbird Leys Ward, Oxford CC. Lab hold. Lab 509 (75.7%, +8.4), UKIP 91 (13.5%, -7), Con 27 (4%, -1.6), Green 21 (3.1%, -1.4), TUSC 13 (1.9%, +1.9), LD 11 (1.6%, -0.4). Swing of 7.7% from UKIP to Lab since May this year.

Northfield Brook Ward, Oxford CC. Lab hold. Lab 401 (70.6%, -1), Con 65 (11.4%, n/c), Green 50 (8.8%, -2.5), TUSC 34 (6%, +6), LD 18 (3.2%, -2.5). Swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con since May this year.

The Leys Division, Oxfordshire CC. Lab hold. Lab 879 (71%, -10.5), UKIP 168 (13.6%, +13.6), Con 77 (6.2%, -1.4), Green 57 (4.6%, -2.8), LD 30 (2.4%, -1), TUSC 27 (2.2%, +2.2). Swing of 12.1% from Lab to UKIP since 2013.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Council by-elections

As well as the Rochester & Strood parliamentary by-election, there were three council by-elections on Thursday, one of them for a ward within Rochester & Strood:

Peninsula Ward, Medway UA. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 2850 (48.3%, +48.3), Con 1965 (33.3%, -20.9), Lab 716 (12.1%, -8.6), Green 314 (5.3%, -2.1), LD 60 (1%, -5.3). Swing of 34.6% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Bramhall South & Woodford Ward, Stockport MBC. Con hold. Con 2080 (53.2%, +8.2), LD 1502 (38.4%, +5.3), Green 197 (5%, +5), Lab 132 (3.4%, -5.5). Swing of 1.5% from LD to Con since May this year.

Uplands Ward, Swansea UA. Ind gain from Lab. Ind 671 (32.5%, +32.5), Lab 553 (26.8%, -12.4), LD 215 (10.4%, -22.4), Green 179 (8.7%, -9.8), Ind 158 (7.7%, +7.7), Con 154 (7.5%, -2.1), PC 104 (5%, +5), TUSC 31 (1.5%, +1.5).  Swing of 22.5% from Lab to Ind since 2012. The Independent candidate who won was previously the Lib Dem councillor for the ward.

Friday, November 14, 2014

Council by-elections

There were seven council by-elections yesterday. I initially assumed the Cambridge result shows how strong the Lib Dem organisation is in some of their defensive parliamentary marginals, even against Labour, but have since been informed this ward is actually in the South Cambs parliamentary seat and has only ever been won once by Labour, in 2012.

The two Dartford results look better than I would have expected for Labour in the Thames Estuary area where UKIP are on the march. In vote share terms the Labour vote looks more solid across this set of results than the recent national polls would suggest.

Queen Edith’s Ward, Cambridge CC. LD gain from Lab. LD 933 (36.5%, -6.1), Lab 790 (30.9%, +1.1), Con 614 (24%, +7.7), Green 222 (8.7%, -2.7). Swing of 3.6% from LD to Lab since May this year.

Brent Ward, Dartford BC. Con hold. Con 597 (45.4%, -7.4), Lab 402 (30.6%, -5.1), UKIP 316 (24%, +24). Swing of 0.7% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Littlebrook Ward, Dartford BC. Lab hold. Lab 358 (47.7%, -7.1), UKIP 220 (29.3%, +29.3), Con 172 (22.9%, -1.1). Swing of 18.2% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Alport & Derwent Division, Derbyshire CC. Con 1118 (44.9%, +2.6), UKIP 715 (28.7%, +3.3), Lab 656 (26.4%, +2.1). Swing of 0.4% from Con to UKIP since 2013.

Bolney Ward, Mid Sussex DC. Con hold. Con 261 (42.9%, -24.3), UKIP 187 (30.7%, +17.4), LD 161 (26.4%, +6.9). Swing of 20.9% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Douglas Ward, Wigan MBC. Lab hold. Lab 874 (59.4%, -0.7), UKIP 452 (30.7%, -0.9), Con 80 (5.4%, -3), Green 37 (2.5%, +2.5), CAP 29 (2%, +2). Swing of 0.1% from UKIP to Lab since May this year.

Bulmershe & Whitegates Ward, Wokingham UA. Con gain from LD. Con 726 (35.4%, +8.4), Lab 498 (24.3%, -10), LD 448 (21.8%, +4.1), UKIP 275 (13.4%, -1.6), Green 105 (5.1%, -1). Swing of 9.2% from Lab to Con since May this year.

Friday, November 07, 2014

Council by-elections

There were only two council by-elections yesterday:

Mevagissey Division, Cornwall UA. Con gain from Lab. Con 348 (32.2%, +8.2),
UKIP 281 (26%, -1.6), Lab 204 (18.9%, -10.8), LD 197 (18.2%, +4.3), Green 50 (4.6%, -0.1). Swing of 4.9% from UKIP to Con since 2013.

Bilton Ward, Rugby BC. Con hold.  Con 668 (42%, -12.2), UKIP 325 (20.4%, +20.4), LD 280 (17.6%, +8.1), Lab 212 (13.3%, -8.1), Ind 60 (3.8%, +3.8), Green 37 (2.3%. -7.8), TUSC 10 (0.6%, -4.3). Swing of 16.3% from Con to UKIP since May this year.

Saturday, November 01, 2014

Council by-elections

As well as the by-election for South Yorkshire Police Commissioner there were five council by-elections on Thursday:

Police & Crime Commissioner, South Yorkshire. Lab hold. First preference votes: Lab 74060 (50%, -1.4), UKIP 46883 (31.7%, +20.2), Con 18536 (12.5%, -2), Eng Dem 8583 (5.8%, -9.8). Swing of 10.8% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Canvey Island East Ward, Castle Point BC. Ind gain from Canvey Island Ind Party. Ind 389 (39.1%, +39.1), CIIP 323 (32.4%, -34.4), Con 208 (20.9%, -0.2), Lab 76 (7.6%, -4.5). Swing of 36.8% from CIIP to Ind since May this year.

Sanfields East Ward, Neath Port Talbot UA. Lab hold, Lab 641 (61.1%, +1.4), UKIP 361 (34.4%, +21.6), Con 47 (4.5%, +1.2). Swing of 10.1% from Lab to UKIP since 2013 by-election.

North Coast & Cumbraes Ward, North Ayrshire UA. SNP hold. First preference votes: SNP 2021 (38.7%, -6.2), Ind 1190 (22.8%, +22.8), Con 1125 (21.6%, +3.2), Lab 691 (13.2%, -5.1), UKIP 192 (3.7%, +3.7). Swing of 14.5% from SNP to Ind since 2012.

Ironbridge Gorge Ward, Telford & Wrekin UA. Lab hold. Lab 325 (44.1%, -8.9), Con 276 (37.4%, -9.6), UKIP 136 (18.5%, +18.5). Swing of 0.4% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Newport West Ward, Telford & Wrekin UA. Ind gain from Con. Ind 264 (39.8%, +39.8), Con 179 (27%, -37), UKIP 157 (23.7%, +23.7), Lab 63 (9.5%, -26.5). Swing of 38.4% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Council by-elections

There were eight council by-elections yesterday, with Labour, the Tories and the SNP each gaining a seat from Independents.

Oban North & Lorn Ward, Argyll & Bute UA. SNP gain from Ind. First preference votes: SNP 1090 (40.9%, +16.3), Ind 629 (23.6%, -11.6), Lab 530 (19.9%, -1.9), Con 415 (15.6%, -2.8). Swing of 14% from Ind to SNP since by-election in July.

Rogate Ward, Chichester DC. Con hold. Con 342 (71.3%, -19.8), UKIP 138 (28.7%, +28.7). Swing of 24.3% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Burnopfield & Dipton Division, Durham UA. Lab gain from Ind. Lab 656 (44.9%, +6.8), Ind 655 (44.8%, +3.5), Con 83 (5.7%, +5.7), Green 68 (4.7%, +4.7). Swing of 1.7% from Ind to Lab since 2013.

Evenwood Division, Durham UA. Lab hold. Lab 546 (38.2%, -7.8)
Con 396 (27.7%, -0.3), UKIP 309 (21.6%, -4.4), Ind 108 (7.5%, +7.5), Green 72 (5%, +5). Swing of 3.8% from Lab to Con since 2013.

Newnham & Westbury Ward, Forest of Dean DC. Ind hold. Ind 321 (38.5%, -1.6), Con 216 (25.9%, -4.9), UKIP 102 (12.2%, +12.2), Lab 100 (12%, -1), Green 70 (8.4%, -7.7), Lib Dem 25 (3%, +3). Swing of 1.7% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Mitcheldean Division, Gloucestershire CC. Con gain from Ind. Con 959 (38.4%, +14), UKIP 550 (22%, +2.7), Ind 455 (18.2%, -18.2), Lab 278 (11.1%, +0.8), LD 150 (6%, +0.6), Green 106 (4.2%, +0.4). Swing of 5.7% from UKIP to Con since 2013.

Haywards Heath Lucastes Ward, Mid Sussex DC. Con hold. Con 524 (56.4%, +4.9), UKIP 203 (21.9%, +15), LD 112 (12.1%, -12.3), Lab 90 (9.7%, +9.7). Swing of 5.1% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Folkestone Harvey West Ward, Shepway DC. Con hold. Con 385 (36.4%, -18.8), UKIP 293 (27.7%, +27.7), LD 262 (24.8%, +3.4), Green 61 (5.8%, +5.8), Lab 57 (5.4%, -18). Swing of 23.2% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Friday, October 17, 2014

Council by-elections

There were ten council by-elections yesterday. Note the successful defence against UKIP by Labour in the key Essex target parliamentary seat of Thurrock, the UKIP gain from the Tories in Kent (Sittingbourne & Sheppey parliamentary constituency), and the two Lib Dem gains.

Harper Green Ward, Bolton MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1176 (50.7%, -6), UKIP 777 (33.4%, +9.3), Con 282 (12.2%, +0.1), Green 38 (1.6%, -2.2), LD 28 (1.2%, -1.7), Ind 19 (0.8%, +0.8). Swing of 7.7% from Lab to UKIP since May this year.

Towyn Ward, Conwy UA. Con hold. Con 143 (25%), Ind 116 (20.2%), Ind 104 (18.2%), Lab 98 (17.1%), Ind  69 (12%), Ind 43 (7.5%). No swing calculable as uncontested in 2012.

Medworth Ward, Fenland DC. Con hold. Con 257 (44.6%, -14.5), UKIP 201 (34.9%, +34.9), Lab 79 (13.7%, -17.8), LD 24 (4.2%, -5.2), Ind 15 (2.6%, +2.6). Swing of 26.4% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Tudor Ward, LB Kingston-on-Thames. Con hold. Con 1062 (41%, +0.1), LD 725 (28%, +10.3), Lab 314 (12.1%, -2.1), UKIP 269 (10.4%, -1.1), Green 219 (8.5%, -7.4). Swing of 5.1% from Con to LD since May this year.

Helmshore Ward, Rossendale BC. Con hold. Con 771 (48.8%, -13.4), Lab 444 (28.1%, -9.7), UKIP 364 (23.1%, +23.1%). Swing of 1.9% from Con to Lab since May this year.

Oakham South West Ward, Rutland UA. Con hold. Con 240 (52.2%, +13.8), Ind 177 (38.5%, +0.8), LD 43 (9.3%, -14.7). Swing of 6.5% from Ind to Con since 2011.

Whissendine Ward, Rutland UA. LD gain from Ind. LD 192 (51.8%, +51.8), Con 179 (48.2%, +5.8). Swing not meaningful since 2011.

Sheppey Central Ward, Swale DC. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 831 (58.4%, +42.7), Con 324 (22.8%, -21.2), Lab 240 (16.9%, -15.1), Loony 27 (1.9%, -6.4). Swing of 32% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

West Thurrock & South Stifford Ward, Thurrock UA. Lab hold. Lab 903 (50.3%, +3), UKIP 621 (34.6%, +0.5), Con 270 (15.1%, -0.2). Swing of 1.3% from UKIP to Lab since May this year.

Westfield Ward, York UA. LD gain from Lab. LD 1804 (60.2%, +25.6), Lab 588 (19.6%, -23.8), UKIP 398 (13.3%, +13.3), Con 113 (3.8%, -10), Green 87 (2.9%, -5.5), Eng Dem 5 (0.2%, +0.2). Swing of 24.7% from Lab to LD since 2011.

 
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